Wandile Sihlobo’s Post

According to HTS Commodities Senior Commodities Strategist Walter Kunisch: “2023 Is Dry. Really Dry. The lingering drought in the key corn and soybean producing states in the U.S. is threatening production this year. 2012 was the last major drought in the U.S. The latest vegetation #drought response index (#VegDRI) shows that the starting point for key U.S. row crops in 2023 is drier than 2012. Higher stress levels during the fragile development stage when crops demand water can suppress plants and limit yields/production. What does this mean? A hastily growing potential for higher prices along with enhanced domestic/global food #inflation.” For more commodities insights, please visit: https://lnkd.in/gE65D9qw #HTSCommodities

Euronext wheat rose on Monday, supported by concerns over dry weather in the U.S. Midwest, though rain relief in Europe and competitive prices cited by traders in an Algerian import tender limited gains. Volumes were light as a U.S. holiday deprived Euronext of the usual impetus from Chicago futures. #grow🌱 #agriculture #supplychain #trade #usa🇺🇸 #paris🇫🇷 #wheat🌾 #drought #climatechange #commodities #dataanalytics #markets #futures

Lush Wheat Fields Across Europe Are Keeping Food Costs in Check Strong EU, Russian output halve wheat prices from 2022 levels Weather in coming weeks will be crucial to harvest outcome As extreme weather wreaks havoc on crops in the Americas and North Africa, Europe’s breadbasket is thriving, with ample wheat harvests keeping global food costs under control. Across northern and eastern Europe, fields are abundant after plentiful spring rain. The strong outlook for the world’s top wheat shippers has helped prices fall to less than half of last year’s record highs, buffering the impact of drought in other growing regions and the shortfall wrought by the war in Ukraine. #business #finance #food #europe #africa

🌾 The dynamic development of wheat prices requires our full attention. After yesterday's gains due to the unpleasant bombings in Ukraine and the impact on port infrastructure such as Odessa, we face further challenges. The wheat harvest is in full swing, although it has been interrupted by rain showers in some regions. Of particular concern is the current weakness in protein levels in southwestern Germany. Keep these values on your radar! Our colleagues from North America are not having an easy time either. The ongoing drought is taking a toll on spring wheat in the US and Canada - especially "high protein" wheat. This week we get more insights by touring the spring wheat and durum areas. From our perspective, there is a real risk that we could see problems with higher protein wheats globally this year. The canola market showed a different trend yesterday. The front date experienced strong price losses, while the subsequent dates increased. The exact reason for this is difficult to determine. Fortunately, buyers continue to be found in the cash market at higher levels. Looking at today's prices, wheat is trading up again on the Cbot. 📈 The agricultural market landscape remains complex and challenging, but we are here to keep you informed and make the best decisions. Stay tuned for more updates! 🌍🌱 #Wheat prices #Market update #Agricultural economics

All eyes are on Australia's wheat harvest at the moment, and forecasts are looking pretty grim as dry weather threatens key growing areas. But what does this mean for key global buyers like China? I've been speaking with some experts this week, here's what they had to say. Hot weather is scorching some of the country's key growing areas, which could lead to less grain. “If it gets drier and production falls below average, a higher proportion of our grain will need to remain on the domestic market to meet our own demand,” Dennis Voznesenski from Rabobank told me. “The wheat crop started the year looking likely to be an above average crop, but dry weather has started to permeate and the crop is likely to be downgraded,” said Andrew Whitelaw from Episode 3. So what does the data show? In June, ABARES forecast a 34% decline in the 2023-24 wheat crop at 26.2 million tons, slightly below the 10-year average. Ole Houe thinks we will reduce our wheat exports by more than 10 million tons on Tuesday, when ABARES will release it's wheat outlook. China is expected to feed a lot more of its wheat to animals this year after heavy rains reduced the quality of its harvest, which means more pressure on imports from places like Australia. China has been the country's biggest grain exporter over the past two years. But China isn't the only place that could be affected. Extreme weather has damaged various crops across the world from the Americas to Africa, adding to pressures on supply that includes Russia’s war in Ukraine and India’s export curbs on rice. Via Bloomberg News #bloombergnews #wheat #grains #Australia #agriculture #china #exports https://lnkd.in/gQNZxk_3

What do all these news items add up to? - Wild weather patterns, Heat waves in India and China - Drought in parts of US/Europe hitting crops - Possible moderate El Nino later this year - Biden Administration's biofuel quotas - Record large Brazil Soybean crop, record small Argentine soybean crop - Potentially large US soybean crop, growing season right ahead - Ukraine conflict, political rumblings in Russia - Presidential elections in US, parliamentary elections in India... Multiple variables in a volatile mix! Is it Global Warming? Anycase all that could equate to huge price swings in crude oil prices, correlated to govt renewable fuel policies, palm/soyoil prices...effecting daily food budget - cooking oil, instant noodles, chocolates, soaps....CPI, inflation! Keep close watch on weather, political weather, geopolitical weather... #elnino #edibleoils #soybeans #palmoil #politicalrisk #globalwarming #inflation #biofuel